The Mathematics of India’s Healthcare Workforce

Continuing on same topic of health care, when can India have 2 doctors per 1000 and 3 doctors per 1000 including Ayush Doctors. 

Two questions

A.Capacity

  1. Serving and reach in Rural india 
  2. Currently india has 1.4 million MBBS and 700,000 Ayush formal doctors. 
  3. ⁠This gives ratio to 1.45 per 1000 in 2026.
  4. ⁠There are 1,36,000 medical seats which has increased from 50,000 seats in 2010. 
  5. ⁠There are 60,000 Ayush Doctor seats in India. 
  6. ⁠Combine one can take 180,000 production capacity per year. 
  7. ⁠For ratio of 2 doctors per thousand we will need 2.8 million doctors. It means we need to add 800,000 new doctors. 
  8. ⁠This means we can achieve 2 Doctors by 2031 or 2032. 
  9. ⁠For 3 doctors ratio, it will take upto 2038 to 2040.

Now the second dimension needs to be considered.

  1. Movement of qualified medical professionals to Villages. 
  2. ⁠In last 30 years, the city data shows the movement is extremely slow. It’s crowding in cities.
  3. ⁠Let me take lead indicators 
  4. The Road access to village has substantially improved in just last 5 years. Thus it is possible to commute to nearest village from Town within 90 minutes to 2 hours. 

B. The construction quality in Village housing as well as infrastructure has substantially improved in last 5 years. Much better in South and West Indian states. 
C. Technology cost of diagnostics machines are coming down and becoming more affordable to setup practice and make them viable.

August 5, 2026

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Arun Jain