ARUN JAIN'S DIARY

Continuing on same topic of health care, when can India have 2 doctors per 1000 and 3 doctors per 1000 including Ayush Doctors. 

Two questions

A.Capacity

1. Serving and reach in Rural india 
2. Currently india has 1.4 million MBBS and 700,000 Ayush formal doctors. 
3. ⁠This gives ratio to 1.45 per 1000 in 2026.
4. ⁠There are 1,36,000 medical seats which has increased from 50,000 seats in 2010. 
5. ⁠There are 60,000 Ayush Doctor seats in India. 
6. ⁠Combine one can take 180,000 production capacity per year. 
7. ⁠For ratio of 2 doctors per thousand we will need 2.8 million doctors. It means we need to add 800,000 new doctors. 
8. ⁠This means we can achieve 2 Doctors by 2031 or 2032. 
9. ⁠For 3 doctors ratio, it will take upto 2038 to 2040.

Now the second dimension needs to be considered.

1. Movement of qualified medical professionals to Villages. 
2. ⁠In last 30 years, the city data shows the movement is extremely slow. It’s crowding in cities.
3. ⁠Let me take lead indicators 
4. The Road access to village has substantially improved in just last 5 years. Thus it is possible to commute to nearest village from Town within 90 minutes to 2 hours. 

B. The construction quality in Village housing as well as infrastructure has substantially improved in last 5 years. Much better in South and West Indian states. 
C. Technology cost of diagnostics machines are coming down and becoming more affordable to setup practice and make them viable.

India’s Top Healthcare Cities (Approximate Capacity per 1,000 Population)

• Chennai: 4.2 doctors | 8.5 nurses | 4.2 hospital beds
• Delhi NCR: 2.9 doctors | 6.0 nurses | 3.2 hospital beds
• Mumbai: 2.8 doctors | 6.0 nurses | 3.1 hospital beds
• Kochi: 2.8 doctors | 6.5 nurses | 3.2 hospital beds
• Bengaluru: 2.4 doctors | 5.0 nurses | 2.4 hospital beds
• Hyderabad: 2.2 doctors | 4.5 nurses | 2.2 hospital beds
• Kolkata: 2.2 doctors | 4.5 nurses | 2.4 hospital beds
• Pune: 2.0 doctors | 4.5 nurses | 2.2 hospital beds
• Ahmedabad: 2.0 doctors | 4.0 nurses | 2.0 hospital beds
• Lucknow: 2.0 doctors | 4.5 nurses | 2.2 hospital beds

National Average (India): 1.0 doctor | 2.6 nurses | 1.4 hospital beds per 1,000 population.

Top Global Healthcare Cities (Approximate Capacity per 1,000 Population)

• Zurich: 5.5 doctors | 21 nurses | 5.0 hospital beds
• Geneva: 5.5 doctors | 21 nurses | 5.0 hospital beds
• Munich: 5.2 doctors | 20 nurses | 8.0 hospital beds
• Boston: 5.0 doctors | 16 nurses | 4.0 hospital beds
• Paris: 4.5 doctors | 13 nurses | 5.5 hospital beds
• New York City: 4.0 doctors | 15 nurses | 3.2 hospital beds
• London: 3.8 doctors | 11 nurses | 2.5 hospital beds
• Tokyo: 3.5 doctors | 15 nurses | 13.0 hospital beds
• Singapore: 2.8 doctors | 8.5 nurses | 2.4 hospital beds
• Seoul: 2.8 doctors | 9.0 nurses | 12.0 hospital beds

Just doing some research after reading morning news on number of 9900 seats added in medical education system this year. Few startling data points 

Few data points 

1. ⁠India produce 1.2 lacs doctors per year.
2. Total registered doctors in India are 14 lacs which translates to 1 doctor per 1000.
3. The medical seats in India has gone up from 50000 to 136000 per year in last 15 years. 
4. As per data india has only 4 million nurses ie 3 per 1000.
5. The world best number of doctors are Cuba with 8 doctors per 1000 and few European countries with 5 doctors per 1000.
6. US still has 3 doctors per 1000.
7. The best performing countries have 21 nurses per 1000 while US has 15 nurses and india with just